May 15 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of
Trade ended nearly 2 percent higher Tuesday, staging a technical
recovery from recent sharp losses amid rumors of Chinese export
interest for U.S. soy, traders said.
* Nearby soybean and soymeal contracts gained against back
months amid rumors that China was seeking old-crop U.S. soy,
traders said. They noted that analytical firm Celeres on Monday
said Brazilian farmers had sold 83 percent of their 2011/12
harvest.
* CBOT soybeans seen as due for a bounce after a two-week
sell-off drove the market to a six-week low by Monday, a sharp
setback from the near-four-year high set in late April.
* Soymeal posted the biggest gains in the soy complex on a
percentage basis. Market supported by concerns about crop losses
in South America, including fears of further losses in
Argentina, the world's biggest exporter of soymeal.
* Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World cut its forecast
of the European Union's 2012 rapeseed crop because of bad
weather. The EU crop will fall to a six-year low of 18.10
million tonnes, from 19.12 million tonnes in 2011, Oil World
said.
* The sharp fall in CBOT soybean prices in recent days is
premature and tight supply fundamentals are likely to keep
prices well supported in coming months - Oil World.
* USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 46 percent seeded as
of Sunday, up from 24 percent a week earlier and ahead of the
five-year average of 24 percent. The crop was 16 percent
emerged.
* Dry, mild weather expected this week in the U.S. Midwest
should help farmers to wrap up corn planting and move ahead with
soybeans, said Andy Karst, meteorologist with World Weather Inc.
Soil moisture is adequate in most areas but rising temperatures
will speed the drying of the ground. Rain expected by the
weekend, Karst said. Soya Market News
CBOT soybeans end higher on rebound, China rumors
- Wednesday, 16 May 2012 10:10
- Hits: 30
Soybean Complex Market Recap
- Tuesday, 15 May 2012 10:59
- Hits: 27
July Soybeans finished down 19 at 1387, 19 3/4 off the high and 11 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 26 1/2 at 1294 3/4. This was 1 1/4 up from the low and 29 1/2 off the high. July Soymeal closed down 5 at 403.5. This was 5.1 up from the low and 6.4 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.94 at 51.3, 1.13 off the high and 0.33 up from the low. July soybeans closed moderately lower on the session and pushed to the lowest level since March 30th but the low was early in the day and the market closed well up from these early lows. Talk that there will be more planted acres than the March 30th USDA intentions report plus ideas that the winter wheat crop will be harvested earlier than normal which could benefit double-cropped soybeans helped to pressure. Long liquidation selling from fund traders appears to be the key bearish force today. The market saw bearish news from outside markets, good weather and a lack of new export news as reasons for the continued long liquidation selling trend early today. A sharp break in the stock market, a jump in the US dollar and weakness in metal and energy markets helped to pressure early. European financial concerns and a lack of a reaction to news of further easing in China added to the negative tone early today. Traders see planting progress near 42% complete for this afternoon's weekly update and a dry forecast for the week suggests a very active planting week ahead. The NOPA crush report this morning was considered bearish on demand as the April crush came in at just 131.7 million bushels which was about 3 million below trade expectations. Oil stocks were higher than expected at 2.385 billion pounds. Weekly export inspections came in at 20.3 million bushels which was well above trade expectations and compares with 11.9 million bushels per week to reach the USDA projection.
DJ US GRAIN AND SOY REVIEW
- Tuesday, 15 May 2012 10:57
- Hits: 30
Soybean futures rose after the USDA said domestic soybean stocks as of Aug. 31 are likely to drop to 210 million bushels, down 16% from the 250 million bushels it predicted a month ago and down 2.3% from a year earlier, due to higher exports and domestic use at processors. The USDA's ending-stocks forecast for the end of the next marketing year is even lower -- 145 million bushels, below the average analyst estimate of 170 million bushels. The forecasts are likely to add to concerns about tightening soybean supplies amid lower South American production and rising Chinese demand. CBOT July soybeans rose 25 cents, or 1.7%, to $14.55 1/4 a bushel. May soybeans rose 24 1/2 cents, or 1.7%, to $14.52 1/4 a bushel.
USDA SOYBEAN & OILSEED REPORT 10 MAY 2012
- Thursday, 10 May 2012 20:22
- Hits: 22
U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 97.0 million tons, up 6 percent from 2011/12. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase, but sunflowerseed, canola, peanut, and cottonseed production also are all projected above last year. Soybean production is projected at 3.205 billion bushels, up from the 2011 crop as higher yields more than offset lower harvested area. Harvested area is projected at 73.0 million acres based on a 5-year average harvested-to-planted ratio and planted area of 73.9 million acres. Soybean yields are projected at 43.9 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from 2011. With beginning stocks projected at 210 million bushels, 2012/13 soybean supplies are projected at 3.43 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2011/12. U.S. soybean crush for 2012/13 is projected at 1.655 billion bushels, almost unchanged from 2011/12 as a lower extraction rate offsets reduced total soybean meal use. Total soybean meal use is projected down 1 percent as reduced exports are only partly offset by gains in domestic use. Increased soybean meal exports from Paraguay and Argentina are expected to exceed the limited gains in global import demand, resulting in reduced U.S. export prospects. With increased 2012/13 U.S. soybean supplies and sharply lower South American soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.505 billion bushels, up 190 million from 2011/12. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 145 million bushels, down 65 million from 2011/12, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at a historically low 4.4 percent. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2012/13 is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel compared with $12.35 per bushel in 2011/12. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $335 to $365 per short ton, compared with $360. Soybean oil prices are projected at 52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound compared with 53.5 cents for 2011/12. Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 471.5 million tons, up 8 percent from 2011/12 mainly due to increased soybean production. Global soybean production is projected at 271.4 million tons, up almost 15 percent. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 55 million tons, up 12.5 million from 2011/12 as yields rebound and relatively high prices lead to record harvested area. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 78 million tons, up 13 million, also due to record harvested area and improved yields. Paraguay soybean production is projected at 7.8 million tons, up 3.8 million from 2011/12 as yields rebound strongly from drought-reduced levels. China soybean production is projected at 13.1 million tons, down 0.4 million from 2011/12 as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops. Global production of highWASDE- 506-4 oil content seeds (sunflowerseed and rapeseed) is projected almost unchanged from 2011/12 as increased area is mostly offset by lower yields. Oilseed supplies for 2012/13 are up 3 percent from 2011/12 despite a 23 percent reduction in beginning stocks resulting from drought-reduced South American crops. With crush projected to increase 2.9 percent, 2012/13 global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 65.6 million tons, up 2.9 million from 2011/12, but still 15.8 million below 2010/11. Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 2.8 percent in 2012/13. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 5 percent in China, accounting for about half of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 97.3 million tons, up 9 percent from 2011/12. China soybean imports are projected at 61 million tons, up 5 million from 2011/12. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 3.2 percent in 2012/13, led by increases for China and India.
Last Updated on Thursday, 10 May 2012 20:44
Soybeans Tumble, Most Grains Steady
- Thursday, 10 May 2012 10:35
- Hits: 14
Grain futures were mixed on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, with soybeans sharply lower as the dollar index rose 0.38 percent.
Corn was up 1 to up 4 3/4, soybeans were off 15 1/4 to off 27 1/2, wheat was up 1 1/2 to up 3 and oats were off 1 3/4 to up 3/4.
Corn prices rose marginally with support from a weaker dollar. Wheat prices rose slightly, as concerns over European elections kept gains in check. Soybean futures tumbled despite continued demand from China, an indication that traders expected the recent rally had run too far.
Corn was up 1 to up 4 3/4, soybeans were off 15 1/4 to off 27 1/2, wheat was up 1 1/2 to up 3 and oats were off 1 3/4 to up 3/4.
Corn prices rose marginally with support from a weaker dollar. Wheat prices rose slightly, as concerns over European elections kept gains in check. Soybean futures tumbled despite continued demand from China, an indication that traders expected the recent rally had run too far.
Dow Jones Soy Review Tuesday 9th May 2012
- Thursday, 10 May 2012 10:34
- Hits: 16
U.S. soybean futures closed lower Tuesday, extending a recent decline as market participants exited positions to reduce risk ahead of a key government report due Thursday.
Soybeans for July delivery fell 27 1/2 cents, or 1.9%, to $14.38 1/4 a bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. July soybean meal fell $9.20 to $417.30 a short ton, and July soybean oil fell 0.31 cent to 53.27 cents a pound.
The decline in soybeans adds to a fall that began last week, when futures traded at a nearly four-year high.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release its updated world supply-and-demand tables Thursday morning, with forecasts for items such as domestic inventories of major crops like soybeans.
Soybeans still have a strong supply-demand outlook thanks to drought-provoked lower production in South America, and consistent export demand from China. But some market participants are wary of holding positions going into the USDA report, which could cause substantial price swings in agricultural commodities.
The selling Tuesday was also driven by technical considerations and weak outside markets, traders said.
More selling was sparked when July soybeans fell below their 21-day moving average and when November soybeans fell below their 40-day moving average, said Chad Henderson, analyst with Prime Ag Consultants in Wisconsin.
The soybean market currently has a large concentration of speculative long bets, and a relative lack of short positions makes it more vulnerable to a price drop than usual, traders say.
Traders Tuesday morning shrugged off a USDA announcement of more soybean export sales to China. It was the eighth consecutive trading day on which the USDA reported a sale to China or "unknown destinations," which traders usually assume means China.
The USDA Tuesday reported soybean export sales of 225,000 metric tons for delivery to China, including 60,000 tons for delivery in the current marketing year. The rest will be delivered in the next marketing year, likely using the "new crop" supplies that are just being planted in the U.S.
Soybeans for July delivery fell 27 1/2 cents, or 1.9%, to $14.38 1/4 a bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. July soybean meal fell $9.20 to $417.30 a short ton, and July soybean oil fell 0.31 cent to 53.27 cents a pound.
The decline in soybeans adds to a fall that began last week, when futures traded at a nearly four-year high.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release its updated world supply-and-demand tables Thursday morning, with forecasts for items such as domestic inventories of major crops like soybeans.
Soybeans still have a strong supply-demand outlook thanks to drought-provoked lower production in South America, and consistent export demand from China. But some market participants are wary of holding positions going into the USDA report, which could cause substantial price swings in agricultural commodities.
The selling Tuesday was also driven by technical considerations and weak outside markets, traders said.
More selling was sparked when July soybeans fell below their 21-day moving average and when November soybeans fell below their 40-day moving average, said Chad Henderson, analyst with Prime Ag Consultants in Wisconsin.
The soybean market currently has a large concentration of speculative long bets, and a relative lack of short positions makes it more vulnerable to a price drop than usual, traders say.
Traders Tuesday morning shrugged off a USDA announcement of more soybean export sales to China. It was the eighth consecutive trading day on which the USDA reported a sale to China or "unknown destinations," which traders usually assume means China.
The USDA Tuesday reported soybean export sales of 225,000 metric tons for delivery to China, including 60,000 tons for delivery in the current marketing year. The rest will be delivered in the next marketing year, likely using the "new crop" supplies that are just being planted in the U.S.
Soybean Futures Market Recap
- Thursday, 10 May 2012 10:30
- Hits: 12
Soybean futures closed 7 to 11 3/4 cents lower, which was in the middle of today's trading range. Meal futures finished mixed, while soyoil was solidly lower. Soybean futures faced heavy pressure from outside markets today as traders reacted to building euro-zone concerns with broad-based risk aversion. But the soybean market was able to brush aside some of this strong spillover pressure as the market recovered well off session lows. Futures were also pressured by position squaring ahead of tomorrow morning's Supply & Demand Report from USDA.
DJ US GRAIN AND SOY REVIEW: Soy Futures Down Further On Positioning 8 May 2012
- Wednesday, 09 May 2012 09:38
- Hits: 11
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. soybean futures closed lower Tuesday, extending a recent decline as market participants exited positions to reduce risk ahead of a key government report due Thursday.
Soybeans for July delivery fell 27 1/2 cents, or 1.9%, to $14.38 1/4 a bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. July soybean meal fell $9.20 to $417.30 a short ton, and July soybean oil fell 0.31 cent to 53.27 cents a pound.
The decline in soybeans adds to a fall that began last week, when futures traded at a nearly four-year high.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release its updated world supply-and-demand tables Thursday morning, with forecasts for items such as domestic inventories of major crops like soybeans.
Soybeans still have a strong supply-demand outlook thanks to drought-provoked lower production in South America, and consistent export demand from China. But some market participants are wary of holding positions going into the USDA report, which could cause substantial price swings in agricultural commodities.
The selling Tuesday was also driven by technical considerations and weak outside markets, traders said.
More selling was sparked when July soybeans fell below their 21-day moving average and when November soybeans fell below their 40-day moving average, said Chad Henderson, analyst with Prime Ag Consultants in Wisconsin.
The soybean market currently has a large concentration of speculative long bets, and a relative lack of short positions makes it more vulnerable to a price drop than usual, traders say.
Traders Tuesday morning shrugged off a USDA announcement of more soybean export sales to China. It was the eighth consecutive trading day on which the USDA reported a sale to China or "unknown destinations," which traders usually assume means China.
The USDA Tuesday reported soybean export sales of 225,000 metric tons for delivery to China, including 60,000 tons for delivery in the current marketing year. The rest will be delivered in the next marketing year, likely using the "new crop" supplies that are just being planted in the U.S.
Soybeans for July delivery fell 27 1/2 cents, or 1.9%, to $14.38 1/4 a bushel at the Chicago Board of Trade. July soybean meal fell $9.20 to $417.30 a short ton, and July soybean oil fell 0.31 cent to 53.27 cents a pound.
The decline in soybeans adds to a fall that began last week, when futures traded at a nearly four-year high.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release its updated world supply-and-demand tables Thursday morning, with forecasts for items such as domestic inventories of major crops like soybeans.
Soybeans still have a strong supply-demand outlook thanks to drought-provoked lower production in South America, and consistent export demand from China. But some market participants are wary of holding positions going into the USDA report, which could cause substantial price swings in agricultural commodities.
The selling Tuesday was also driven by technical considerations and weak outside markets, traders said.
More selling was sparked when July soybeans fell below their 21-day moving average and when November soybeans fell below their 40-day moving average, said Chad Henderson, analyst with Prime Ag Consultants in Wisconsin.
The soybean market currently has a large concentration of speculative long bets, and a relative lack of short positions makes it more vulnerable to a price drop than usual, traders say.
Traders Tuesday morning shrugged off a USDA announcement of more soybean export sales to China. It was the eighth consecutive trading day on which the USDA reported a sale to China or "unknown destinations," which traders usually assume means China.
The USDA Tuesday reported soybean export sales of 225,000 metric tons for delivery to China, including 60,000 tons for delivery in the current marketing year. The rest will be delivered in the next marketing year, likely using the "new crop" supplies that are just being planted in the U.S.
Soyabean Market Recap 8 May 2012
- Wednesday, 09 May 2012 09:34
- Hits: 10
Unlike the other grains, the soybean market saw aggressive long liquidation selling to drive the market sharply lower on the session as speculative sellers were active for much of the session. The market pushed slightly lower early in the session as the new buying from China was not enough to offset the negative tone from outside market forces and speculator long liquidation selling ahead of the Supply/demand report may have accelerated when the stock market took a more serious tumble. A sharp break in gold, copper and crude oil and a strong US dollar added to the bearish tone. Talk of the record high net long position from speculators as of May 1st added to the liquidation selling fears. The USDA confirmed sales of 225,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China which included 60,000 for the 2011/12 season and 165,000 for the new crop season. In addition, the USDA confirmed the sale of 40,000 tonnes of soybean oil to unknown destination for the 2012/13 season. Strength in old crop corn and wheat helped to provide some support but the dominate force of the day was speculative selling which drove July to the lowest level since April 20th and November to the lowest since April 18th.
DJ CBOT SOY OUTLOOK: Seen Lower; Profit Taking To Weigh On Prices
- Tuesday, 01 May 2012 22:11
- Hits: 30
May 01, 2012 (Dow Jones ) --
-- Overbought market conditions will produce a corrective price pattern Tuesday
-- USDA said farmers had planted 12% of the U.S. soybean crop as of Sunday
-- USDA on Tuesday announced the sale of 110,000 metric tons of soybeans to China
CHICAGO (Dow Jones) - U.S. soybean futures are poised for a lower start Tuesday, fueled by traders taking profits after Monday's late surge near 4-year highs.Analysts expect soybeans to start 8 cents to 10 cents lower.
In overnight trade, soybeans for May delivery were down 11 3/4 cents at $14.91 1/4, and soybeans for July delivery were down 10 1/4 cents to $14.95 1/4 per bushel.
July soybean meal was down $2.50 to $433.00 a short ton, and July soybean oil was down 0.26 cent to 54.79 cents a pound.
Soybeans are expected to experience profit taking on the open today, as traders consolidate positions after settling above the $15 a bushel level for the first time since July 2008 Monday.
Overbought market conditions will produce a corrective price pattern Tuesday, analysts at advisory firm AgResource Co wrote in a morning market note.
Soybean futures have surged to their highest levels since July 2008 amid lower estimates of South American soy output and strong export demand. A solid start to the U.S. planting season, a slight pickup in country movement on the futures rally and the absence of many world traders due to the May Day holiday will promote selling interest.
U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Monday farmers had planted 12% of the U.S. soybean crop as of Sunday. The seeding pace is above the average of 5% for that time of year.
In Illinois, 13% of the crop was in the ground, above the average of 2% for that time of year. In Indiana, 28% of the crop is seeded, well above the five-year average of 4%.
Yet, the combination of strong export demand, tighter projected world supplies and the need to keep values firm in an effort to increase planted acreage in the U.S. as well as next fall in South America continues to attract investor buying on price breaks.
U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday announced private exporters reported the sale of 110,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2012/2013 marketing year.
Traders doubt the selling pressure will be long lived, as both soybeans and soybean meal continue to fire higher based on further cuts in this year's South American production spawning large Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, said Joel Karlin, analyst with California based Western Milling.
"For now the function of the soybean market is to move higher in order to ration demand and spur increased plantings in the U.S. if it is not too late and definitely next year in South America," Karlin said.
"We suspect the global oilseeds production and stocks data will come down again on next week's May USDA supply and demand reports," Karlin added.
India's March Soy meal Exports Rose by 12.6% at 4,61,892 T From 4,09,882 T - SOPA
- Friday, 06 April 2012 10:53
- Hits: 94
Published on: Apr 05, 03:56
India's soy meal exports, in March 2012 increased by 12.6 per cent to 4,61,892 tonnes from 4,09,882 tonnes during the same period last year.
However, the soy meal shipments during the finance year 2011-12 (Apr-Mar) were 39,14,683 tonnes, slightly increased by 1.79 per cent from 38,45,736 tonnes a year ago.
During the FY 2011-12 shipments to Iran, Thailand, Japan, EU and Mozambique (Africa) registered exceptional growth. However, exports to Vietnam, Indonesia and UAE were hit due to certain trade barriers.
During the first half of current oil year (Oct-Sep), exports during Oct'11 to March 2012 were 2785831 MT as against 2997847 MT last year, a fall of 7 per cent.
Indian oilmeal exports volume up by 8% in FY11-12
- Thursday, 05 April 2012 10:56
- Hits: 83
KOLKATA: The Indian oilmeal export in FY11-12 has clocked a 8% growth in volume and touched a figure of 5,480,083 tons as compared to 5,071,779 tons in FY10-11.
In value terms there has been a marginal growth of 1% to Rs 8,300 crore in FY11-12 as compared to Rs 8,200 crore in the previous fiscal, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. The export of oilmeals during March 2012 is reported at 575,972 tons compared to 579,907 tons in March 2011.
Oilmeal import by Japan from India during April 2011 to March 2012 reported at 1,296,436 tons compared to 1,259,870 tons last year consisting of 1,266,840 tons of soybean meal and 29,596 tons of rapeseed meal. Vietnam, another major market, imported 903,554 tons compared to 853,869 tons last year consisting 668,114 tons of soybean meal, 58,715 tons of rapeseed meal and entire quantity of 176,725 tons of rice bran extraction.
South Korea, a major importer of oilmeal imported 836,223 tons compared to 624,699 tons last year, consisting of 427,229 tons of rapeseed meal, 317,106 tons of castorseed meal and 91,888 tons of soybean meal.
China imported 351,003 tons of oilmeal as compared to 536,604 tons consisting of 272,078 tons of rapeseed meal, 76,637 tons of soybean meal and 2,288 tons of groundnut meal. Europe and others have imported 386,107 tons of oilmeal compared to 299,770 tons in previous fiscal.
European Union: Iran Sanctions Update: New EU Council Regulation And The Impact On Oil, Petrochemicals And Commodities
- Monday, 02 April 2012 20:42
- Hits: 44
OVERVIEW
Council Regulation (EU) 267/2012 of 23rd March 2012 ("EU Regulation") replaces the existing Council Regulation (EU) 961/2010.
SNAPSHOT OF THE EU REGULATION
The EU Regulation closes off a number of perceived pre-existing loopholes:
- Revisions to the definition of "brokering services";
- The definition of "transfers of funds" now includes "non-electronic transfers"; and
- Revised rules on authorisation requests for payments to or from an "Iranian person, entity or body".
NEW MEASURES
- Any permitted dealings in crude oil contracts shipped prior to July 1st 2012 must be notified 20 working days in advance in writing to the relevant Member State;
- Implementation of prohibitions and restrictions concerning petrochemicals, gold, precious metals, diamonds and key equipment and technology relating to the Iranian petrochemical industry; and
- Prohibition on the use of specialised financial messaging services.
RELAXED MEASURES
- Derogations concerning the freezing of the assets of the Central Bank of Iran;
- Adjustments to insurance provisions; and
- Derogations concerning payments relating to diplomatic, consular and certain international organisations.
A more detailed summary is available upon request by e mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
SWIFT
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) announced it would disconnect some 30 Iranian banks from the system, including Iran's Central Bank. Without access to SWIFT, it becomes almost impossible to complete large international funds transfers. This may result in more barter deals. There are "tried and tested" alternatives. If, for instance, the Iranian Oil Ministry and a Japanese oil refinery have accounts in the same bank, then any money transfer between them would be an internal bank transaction that wouldn't require using the SWIFT system. Alternatively, China may say, 'We're going to buy Iranian oil and deposit the money in a Chinese bank.' That Chinese bank may then makes those funds available to Iran to buy product from China.
US SANCTIONS EXEMPTIONS
The U.S. has exempted Japan and 10 EU states from financial sanctions because they have reduced purchases of Iranian oil, but Iran's top customers, China and India, remain at risk of such steps.
NUCLEAR TALKS
Nuclear talks between Iran and the "Iran Six" (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - the United States, Great Britain, China, Russia and France - plus Germany) are due to take place in April. If these talks are positive, we may see an easing of sanctions in due course. The pending July 1st EU ban on crude oil imports may act as a catalyst for resolution.
OIL MARKET UPDATE
We calculate that if Iranian crude oil exports reduce by 10% during 2012 and if those buying Iranian crude win a 10-15% price reduction - then the Iranian economy could lose up to $24 billion.
Further tension with Iran will likely create a spike in the oil price which could well reach US$150 a barrel. It is estimated that such increase would, if sustained, cause a recession of 1% in the EU this year.
Industry group IATA have warned that fuel prices are hurting airlines and that an increase to US$150 a barrel could push some into bankruptcy.
India
India's Great Eastern Shipping Co Ltd is said to have faced difficulties paying Greek firm Eurotankers (which holds an account with RBS), for using one of its supertankers to ship Iranian crude. The supertanker in question is said to have delivered 93,000 tonnes of Iran Heavy crude to Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd at Mangalore port on February 7th 2012.
India's Essar Oil, is said to have bought oil in three Iranian vessels in February. Insurance problems for shipments is said to have forced Shipping Corporation of India to cancel an Iranian crude delivery last month.
India publicly maintains it will not seek a waiver to U.S. sanctions, and that it sees no need to reduce oil imports from Iran because that is not required under United Nations sanctions.
The Indian government, however, is said to have privately asked refiners to cut Iranian imports by at least 15%. India and Iran are considering bartering commodities and other products for crude through a rupee account with UCO Bank (UCO).
China
China slashed imports of Iranian crude oil in the first quarter. There is speculation that the Chinese will seek to renegotiate lower prices from Iran moving forward.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is preparing to extend this year's unexpected jump in oil sales to the U.S., which have quietly risen 25 per cent to the highest level since mid 2008, according to preliminary US government data, a sizeable leap that appears at least partly related to the imminent completion of a major expansion at its joint-venture Motiva refinery in Texas.
Singapore
Iran is shipping fuel oil to Singapore using a supertanker from its own fleet as Western sanctions make it difficult for buyers to lift cargoes off Iranian coasts. Singapore-based Kuo Oil is said to have ceased renewing its term fuel-oil purchase contract with Iran. Traders expect Iran to begin regular shipments of fuel oil to Singapore where it can be sold to local or Chinese traders.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka is said to be planning to purchase crude from Iraq to offset the negative effect of US sanctions concerning Iran.
Malaysia
Malaysian state oil firm Petronas has said it will halt all imports of Iranian crude from April.
Japan
Japan has been granted a waiver from the U.S. sanctions after cutting its Iran oil imports by the targeted 15-22% in the second half of last year.
South Korea
South Korea is said to have cut Iran imports by 15% in January and February combined.
Taiwan
Taiwan state-run refinery CPC may halt Iran imports from July.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka, which relies on Iran crude for 90% of its needs, is said to have signed a deal to buy Oman crude as it works to reduce its reliance on Tehran.
South Africa
The South African government is said to be planning to have alternatives to Iranian oil in place by the end of May. South Africa relies on Iran for about 29% of its oil imports.
Smuggling - Oman
The smuggling trade to Iran from Oman is said to be thriving, delivering many goods (possibly including those prohibited by international sanctions) in unmarked speedboats across the Strait of Hormuz linking the oil-rich Gulf with the Arabian Sea. It is said that some 500 boats make the journey across the Strait daily.
Wheat
Iran has been shopping for wheat at a frantic pace, ordering a large part of its expected yearly requirement in a little over one month and paying a premium in non-dollar currencies to work around toughened sanctions.
Iran is said to have bought around 2 million tonnes of wheat last month from Russia, Germany, Canada, Brazil and Australia.
Soybean
Iran is said to be seeking to buy more agricultural commodities from India after agreeing to import soybean meal used in livestock feed. Iranian traders are said to have bought soybean meal for delivery next month.
Sugar
Indian traders have purportedly struck deals to export 60,000 tons of raw sugar to Iran for March-April delivery, in dollars, through Dubai-based middlemen. It is anticipated Iran needs to import about 324,000 tons of raw sugar by September.
The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.
Specific Questions relating to this article should be addressed directly to the author.
India and China Skirt Iran Sanctions With ‘Junk for Oil’
- Monday, 02 April 2012 20:37
- Hits: 58
Iran and its leading oil buyers, China and India, are finding ways to skirt U.S. and European Union financial sanctions on the Islamic republic by agreeing to trade oil for local currencies and goods including wheat, soybean meal and consumer products.
India, the second-biggest importer of Iran’s oil, has set up a rupee account at a state-owned bank to settle as much as much as 45 percent of its bill, according to Indian officials. China, Iran’s largest oil customer, already settles some of its oil debts through barter, Mahmoud Bahmani, Iran’s central bank governor, said Feb. 28. Iran also has sought to trade oil for wheat from Pakistan and Russia, according to media reports from the two countries.
The trend is growing, sanctions specialists and U.S. officials say, and is denying the Islamic Republic hard currency to prop up the plummeting value of the rial and to fund nuclear and missile programs. Iran already is starved for dollars and euros to support the rial, and barter deals will force it to spend billions of dollars of oil revenue on goods, according to Kenneth Katzman at the Congressional Research Service, a nonpartisan government-research institute in Washington.
“Iran cannot stabilize the value of its currency with such unorthodox payment methods, and that is why its economy is collapsing,” Katzman, an Iran sanctions specialist, said in an interview. “Iran is essentially on a junk-for-oil program.”
Local Currency, Gold
The second-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iran said last month it will accept payment in any local currency or gold as new sanctions make it harder for trading partners to pay in dollars and euros.
The barter trend, lawyers and trade analysts say, is exposing an unintended consequence of sanctions. Cutting Iran off from the global financial system, they say, is driving trade into informal channels and producing greater opportunities for corruption and the diversion of funds for illicit purposes.
“Payments through the financial system are easier to police, and there is less scope for corruption,” said Nigel Kushner, a London-based attorney who specializes in Iran sanctions and export controls.
While “the upside of denying Iran access to hard currency for furthering its nuclear program outweighs the downside of decreasing transparency and pushing trade underground, we could be left very much in the dark as to who is dealing with Iran,” Kushner said in an interview.
Harder to Police
“When you force trade out of established channels, you have no way to measure it” or to verify that Iran’s trading partners are abiding by global sanctions regimes, said Barbara Slavin, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington research group.
Iran is feeling the impact of tightened sanctions on finance, insurance, shipping and energy. The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as Swift, expelled Iran’s central bank and more than 20 other Iranian banks this month, making it almost impossible for Iran to complete large international funds transfers.
Exports from Iran will be cut by 600,000 to 700,000 barrels a day because of the international sanctions, Michael Lo, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA (BNP), said in an e-mailed note today. Oil prices are set for a new rally in the fourth quarter as demand outstrips growth in non-OPEC supplies, according to the bank.
The biggest winners in the rise of barter deals with Iran are India and China, the world’s fastest-growing major economies, which now are able to meet some of their burgeoning energy demands by trading rupees and yuan or agricultural and consumer goods, analysts said.
Oil for Electronics
Iran is using yuan paid into Chinese bank accounts to buy Chinese-made washing machines, refrigerators, electronic goods, toys, clothes, cosmetics and toiletries, Katzman said.
Rupee payments to Iran from India may total at least $4 billion a year and will be deposited in India’s state-run UCO Bank (UCO), which doesn’t have U.S. operations and is unlikely to be affected by the global sanctions, according to an official with knowledge of the matter who declined to be named because the information is confidential.
Payments in local currencies such as the yuan and rupee, which are not fully convertible, are less beneficial for Iran than hard currencies such as dollars, euros, and Japanese yen.
Trevor Houser, an energy analyst and partner at the Rhodium Group, a New York-based economic research firm, said paying for Iranian oil in rupees is “a pretty good deal for India, and it’s a pretty bad deal for Iran.” It limits the goods the Persian Gulf nation can buy and “deprives Iran of the hard currency they need for effective monetary policy,” he said in a telephone interview.
Palm Oil Rallies to Highest in a Year on US Soybean Forecast
- Monday, 02 April 2012 20:30
- Hits: 60
Palm oil rallied to the highest level in more than a year, snapping three days of losses, after a US government survey showed soybean acreage in the world’s largest exporter will decline, boosting oilseed prices.
June-delivery palm oil surged 2.9 percent to close at 3,533 ringgit ($1,157) per ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the highest price for a most-active contract since March 9, 2011. Futures climbed 8.1 percent in the quarter ended March 31.
Farmers will sow 73.902 million acres with soybeans this year, down 1.4 percent from 2011 and the lowest in five years, the US Department of Agriculture said March 30. The forecast was about 1.5 million acres below the average estimate of analysts and almost 1.1 million less than a year earlier. Soybeans can be crushed to make soybean oil, which competes with palm oil for use in food and fuel.
“US farmers plan to reduce soybean acreage in favor of corn,” Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Group Holdings Bhd., wrote in a report.
“This, coupled with lower corn inventories, has pushed US grain prices higher and is positive” for crude palm oil prices, she said.
Corn inventories on March 1 fell more than analysts forecast to the lowest for this time of year since 2004, the USDA said.
Soybeans for May delivery climbed 0.9 percent to $14.1575 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade today, extending the 3.5 percent gain on March 30. Futures surged 16 percent in the first quarter after dry weather reduced crops in South America.
Soybeans Gain
Soybean oil for delivery in May advanced 0.7 percent to 55.48 cents per pound. The rally in palm oil today helped narrow its discount to soybean oil to $66.63 a ton from $93.39 on March 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Palm oil exports from Malaysia, the second-largest producer, rose 4.8 percent to 1.23 million tons in March from the previous month, independent market surveyor Intertek said March 31.
Palm oil’s rally in the first quarter “was a culmination of the South American drought,” Paramalingam Subramaniam, director of Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn., said in an e-mail.
Markets in China are closed for a holiday today.
June-delivery palm oil surged 2.9 percent to close at 3,533 ringgit ($1,157) per ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the highest price for a most-active contract since March 9, 2011. Futures climbed 8.1 percent in the quarter ended March 31.
Farmers will sow 73.902 million acres with soybeans this year, down 1.4 percent from 2011 and the lowest in five years, the US Department of Agriculture said March 30. The forecast was about 1.5 million acres below the average estimate of analysts and almost 1.1 million less than a year earlier. Soybeans can be crushed to make soybean oil, which competes with palm oil for use in food and fuel.
“US farmers plan to reduce soybean acreage in favor of corn,” Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Group Holdings Bhd., wrote in a report.
“This, coupled with lower corn inventories, has pushed US grain prices higher and is positive” for crude palm oil prices, she said.
Corn inventories on March 1 fell more than analysts forecast to the lowest for this time of year since 2004, the USDA said.
Soybeans for May delivery climbed 0.9 percent to $14.1575 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade today, extending the 3.5 percent gain on March 30. Futures surged 16 percent in the first quarter after dry weather reduced crops in South America.
Soybeans Gain
Soybean oil for delivery in May advanced 0.7 percent to 55.48 cents per pound. The rally in palm oil today helped narrow its discount to soybean oil to $66.63 a ton from $93.39 on March 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Palm oil exports from Malaysia, the second-largest producer, rose 4.8 percent to 1.23 million tons in March from the previous month, independent market surveyor Intertek said March 31.
Palm oil’s rally in the first quarter “was a culmination of the South American drought,” Paramalingam Subramaniam, director of Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn., said in an e-mail.
Markets in China are closed for a holiday today.
Corn stocks drop 8 percent, soybean stocks jump 10 percent
- Monday, 02 April 2012 20:27
- Hits: 31
The USDA's latest Grain Stocks report showed that corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2012 totaled 6.01 billion bushels, down 8 percent from March 1, 2011. Of the total stocks, 3.19 billion bushels are stored on farms, down 6 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.82 billion bushels, are down 10 percent from a year ago. The December 2011 - February 2012 indicated disappearance is 3.64 billion bushels, compared with 3.53 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2012 totaled 1.37 billion bushels, up 10 percent from March 1, 2011. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 555 million bushels, up 10 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 817 million bushels, are up 10 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2011 - February 2012 quarter totaled 998 million bushels, down 3 percent from the same period a year earlier.
All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2012 totaled 1.20 billion bushels, down 16 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 217 million bushels, down 25 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 983 million bushels, are down 14 percent from a year ago. The December 2011 - February 2012 indicated disappearance is 462 million bushels, down 9 percent from the same period a year earlier.
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